A new world order

A little over twenty years have passed since Samuel Huntington published a landmark piece entitled 'The Clash of Civilisations.' Published shortly after the end of the Cold War, this article presented a detailed analysis of the shape conflicts in the post-Soviet era would possibly take. While idealogical differences were the drivers of conflict in the twentieth century, civilizational fault lines would constitute the 'battle lines of the future,' he argued.

Looking back at the intervening years, it is clear that his prediction has been prophetic. The nineties saw the escalation of Judeo-Islamic conflict in the Palestine, the dismemberment of Yugoslavia along ethnic lines, an Indo-Pak conflict in Kargil, and above all, the rise of extremism.

The second decade of the twenty-first century began with an uprising in Egypt, the harbinger of what is now known as the Arab Spring, in which a rapid succession of Arab and north African countries have succeeded in, or are struggling to, overthrow unpopular, dictatorial governments amidst revival of Islamic popularity (notably in Egypt). Closer home, the ethnic solidarity story gains a new twist, as a regional party pulled out of the coalition government at the centre last year over neighbouring Sri Lanka's excesses against the ethnic Tamils in a recently concluded civil war.

In short, all that Huntington predicted and feared, have come to pass. Moreover, rumblings of further conflict are brewing. As the world becomes more and more connected, and as rogue nations increasingly improve their access to nuclear and other weapons, the call for relentless efforts to promote co-operation has never been more strident.

To Huntington's thesis, I would venture to introduce two added dimensions: that of economic iniquities and political strategizing. Political strategies and foreign policy games, are to blame, in no small measure in fomenting inter-civilizational tensions, as seen in the case of American strategy of supporting rebels in central Asia as part of its Cold War strategy, only to see the extreme effect of the souring of these old relations in the form of the 9/11 attack.

Persistence of economic inequality and lack of access to education and health facilities in pockets of the world is worrisome, not just because of the cruel denial of the basic necessities for dignified human existence, but also because the deprived fall prey easily to malevolent forces. The uneducated, underprivileged youth is an easy target for indoctrination, and ruthless conflict-mongers could potentially form armies of energetic, passionate and disastrously misguided young people.

What we need is an agenda for development, for nations and multilateral agencies to come together to create directed programmes addressing high-risk impoverished regions, and to make a life of dignity a reality for the deprived millions.

A world with lesser discontent is a world with a much better shot at lasting peace.